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● Sunday SpotlightSunday Edition · Capital Region

Sunday Spotlight.

Issue No. 09July 12, 2026
Brian Marchand
This week's read

Nobody’s market. Somebody’s opportunity.

Neither buyers nor sellers have full control right now. That gap is exactly where good deals get made.

01This week's take

When nobody has the edge, the people willing to negotiate get the deal.

Most market conversations assume there’s a clear winner: it’s either a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. Right now the Capital Region doesn’t fit neatly into either label. Inventory has loosened enough that buyers have real options, but demand is steady enough that well-priced homes still move fast. Nobody’s fully in control.

That kind of split market tends to reward people who negotiate rather than people who wait for conditions to tilt clearly their way. Sellers who hold firm on an unrealistic price sit longer than they used to. Buyers who wait for an obvious buyer’s market to show up may be waiting for a label that doesn’t quite apply here.

The opportunity in a market like this isn’t a secret trend, it’s a mindset. Come with realistic numbers, be willing to have an actual conversation on price and terms, and both sides tend to walk away reasonably satisfied instead of one side clearly losing.

A market where nobody has full leverage is a market that rewards people willing to talk.
02The numbers that matter
◆ A market that doesn’t fit either label cleanly
1.4 mo.Housing supply,
Capital Region
99.2%Avg. sale-to-list
price ratio
25 daysMedian days
to contract
6.5%Avg. 30-yr fixed rate,
week of July 12

A sale-to-list ratio just above 99% with supply near a month and a half is right in the middle: not tight enough to guarantee a bidding war, not loose enough to hand buyers full control. That middle ground is where negotiation actually matters.

A recent deal closed a few thousand under asking with the seller covering part of closing costs, terms that wouldn’t have happened a year ago in either direction. Neither side got everything, but both sides got a deal that worked, because both were willing to negotiate instead of holding out for a market that fully favored them.
03What to do with it this week
For realtors

Coach clients to negotiate, not wait for a label to apply.

Buyers hoping for a clear buyer’s market and sellers hoping for last year’s bidding wars are both waiting for something that may not show up this year. The more useful conversation is about what’s actually negotiable in this specific deal.

Neither "wait for a buyer’s market" nor "hold out for last year’s prices" describes what’s actually happening. Negotiation does.

For sellers

A realistic price still moves. An optimistic one sits.

This isn’t a market where any price works, but it also isn’t one where buyers have full leverage. Price to the current data and be open to reasonable terms conversations, and most well-presented homes are still moving in under a month.

Realistic pricing plus a willingness to talk terms is doing more right now than firmness on price alone.

For buyers

You have more room to ask than you did a year ago. Use it.

This isn’t a market where you can lowball freely, but reasonable requests, closing cost help, minor repairs, a bit of time on the closing date, are landing more often than they used to. Get pre-approved and go in ready to negotiate rather than waiting for a full buyer’s market to arrive.

You don’t need a full buyer’s market to have real negotiating room. You just need a reasonable ask and a pre-approval in hand.

Penny
Penny's Corner
Words of wisdom, from under Dad's desk

Nobody in this house has the clear upper hand either, if we’re being honest, I run the living room, Dad runs the office, and we both pretend the kitchen is neutral territory. Works out fine as long as everyone negotiates instead of digging in. Sounds like the market is finally catching up to how things work around here.

04From the closing table

Deals that close on schedule aren't an accident. These are the people who lived it, in their own words, from Google, Zillow, Facebook and Experience.com.

One move this week

Have a deal that needs some creative terms to work?

Whether you’re buying or selling, a split market like this one usually has more room to negotiate than either side assumes. Send me the details and let’s find the terms that actually get your deal done.

Sunday Spotlight · A weekly read on the Capital Region housing market, from Brian Marchand.
Sr. Loan Consultant, New American Funding · NMLS #481563 · Albany · NMLS #6606 · Equal Housing Lender.
Local market figures reflect third-party aggregated Albany data. Mortgage rate per Freddie Mac PMMS, week of July 12, 2026. Past market performance is not a guarantee of future results. Nothing here is a commitment to lend or an offer of credit.
Brian Marchand, Powered by New American Funding

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Brian Marchand, Sr. Loan Consultant at New American Funding

Brian Marchand · Sr. Loan Consultant, New American Funding · NMLS #481563

Works with buyers and homeowners across Albany, NY, the Capital Region and New York State. Licensed in New York State. New American Funding, NMLS #6606 · 18 Computer Dr E, Suite 103, Albany, NY 12205.

About Brian